Proper

Abstract

The ultimate purpose of this research is to examine the factors influencing the ROK’s conventional deterrence posture and to provide some suggestions to enhance its effect. For this, this research tests the ROK’s conventional deterrence posture using a total of 6 independent variables at two levels: (1) general; security environment, the balance of forces, military alliance relations, (2) specific; ROK’s counter strategy, rules of engagement, decision makers’ guidance. Considering the research results, the Korean peninsula is surely in the situation of mutual deterrence. The military capabilities of both sides are sufficient to threaten each other, so it is not easy to take place a general war. Under this security environment, the DPRK consistently commits small scale conventional provocations. As a result, the most important point for increasing the ROK’s conventional deterrence is how to deter the DPRK’s small-scale provocations. From this perspective, it is necessary to establish the mind-set of its population, add a new counter-provocation phase in middle intensity conflicts, and revise a practical Armistice Rules of Engagement to increase the credibility of the ROK’s deterrence.